Record temperature forecast: the next 5 years are scary

Record temperature forecast: the next 5 years are scary

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Over the next five years, thermometers will set record temperatures, with an increase that could exceed 1.5 ° C by 2024.

These are the recent forecasts for the 2020-2030 decade, developed by the British Met Office, the authority on the subject.

The Met office is one of the world's leading centers, specializing in short-term climate analysis, as well as annual and multi-year forecasts, thanks to data collected by NASA, Noaa and HadCRUT4.

Forecasts for decades are updated every year, and in January 2020 they showed an unpleasant future.

According to experts from the Met office, in fact, as early as the first five years of the next decade, forecasting models suggest further warming over much of the planet, especially in high northern latitudes, with potentially significant climate impacts. especially in Europe, Asia, North America and Africa.

The forecasts take into account natural variability and human influences, observing the current climatic state and evaluating the possible increase in greenhouse gases caused by volcanic and anthropogenic activity.

The latest Met Office forecast was made by analyzing the temperatures recorded on the sea surface, as well as those recorded below the ocean surface, in addition to taking into account the salinity of the waters and the atmospheric winds.

In the five-year period 2020-2024, the global average temperature is expected to increase between 1.06 ° C and 1.62 ° C compared to the pre-industrial period of 1850 to 1900, breaking the record of 1.16 ° C recorded in 2016. All this , except the main volcanic eruptions.

Therefore, the analysis shows an additional warming trend, which could also lead us to exceed, even temporarily, the targets set by the Paris Agreement.

According to scientists, rising temperatures, contributed to by climate change, are consistent with continued high levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Forecasts show that the time window in which we have the opportunity to deal with climate emergencies is getting narrower and closer.

Article in Portuguese

Video: More possibly record-setting temperatures in the forecast (February 2023).